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Do You Know Why? 2007 vs 2008 in Regional Cities

Following are notes on the performance of two groups of cities for March 27 - May 27th in 2007 and 2008.  These cities are all within a 50 mile radius. Can you guess why the vivid differences in the two groups?

Group 1 / # of homes sold                 2007                        2008

North Highlands                                           33                             97              +194%

Elk Grove                                                     259                          570              + 97%

Rancho Cordova                                            70                          138               +97%

West Sacramento                                         47                             88               +87%

Natomas                                                      213                            372              +75%

Woodland                                                     72                              91                +26%

Group 2 / # of homes sold                2007                         2008

Davis                                                             98                              64                -35%

Folsom                                                        171                             132                -23%

Auburn                                                          81                              66                -19%

Granite Bay                                                 43                               36                -16%

East Sacramento                                        179                            180                —-

Yes, of course you have it.  The cities who have increased in the number of homes sold are those who had the most bank-owned properties.  Investors have recognized a good thing and swooped in to take advantage of homes whose prices have dropped well below the cost it would take to build them…                         -Jamie Madison

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Pastoral-Urban Living at Shepard’s Close in Davis

Okay friends we had URBAN living in Davis with the Roe Building - and NEW to the scene is Shepard’s Close.  It is as urban as Davis gets - being just one block from the Farmers Market and a few blocks from downtown.  However, with a quaint English moniker like “Shepard’s Close” (meaning the end of Shepard’s Lane) and with a meandering walkway among cork oak trees and other thoughtful plantings, there is a really pastoral feeling in this new development. 

Maybe “development” overstates the case - Shepard’s Close is a collection of 5 stand alone and semi-attached homes off B Street between 7th and 8th.  Built by Mike Corbett (Village Homes fame), Christopher Corbett and with the design charge of Elizabeth McDermott, these charming sustainable homes offer Davisites a new alternative. 

Shepard's Close Davis CA

Two of the homes are very modern, one small one cottage at the back has a 1920s Land Park feel, there is a classic two story home, and the large home up front (Mike Corbett’s personal home) sits elegantly on its plot (still under construction) promising a slightly medieval influence.  How can all of these disparate influences work together?  You will be amazed to see that they do.  Maybe it is the hardscape and the plantings that make Shepard’s Close feel so cohesive.

Shepard's Close Davis CA

The homes feature passive and active solar - southern orientation for winter heat and prevailing summer breezes, no fossil fuels, EPA-certified wood burning stoves, energy star appliances, photo-voltaic, solar hot water, and more.  They are filled with light and pleasant to be in.

Two are for sale - the others sold privately before the project started.  Call if you are curious - I am happy to give you the details or show you around the project.

 -Jamie Madison

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Davis CA Real Estate Sales: All at Once

“Sale Pending” signs are popping up all over Davis. Buyers, particularly those in the $600k and under, are noticing that homes that they were leisurely considering for purchase are selling out from under them.

For the year we are down a whopping 51%, but there are currently 85 residential properties in escrow, in addition to 30 sales that closed in April.  If those pendings were closed, we would be at exactly the same rate of sales we were last year at this time.  So be circumspect in considering the figures below - it will look very different a month from now. 

YEAR - to - DATE                  2007                      2008         Change

Number sold                           152                          75            -51%

Median price                         $522k                     $458k       -12%

Days on Market                     69                             71             +2

Average price                       $559k                      $535k        -4%

Dollar volume                        $170.2m                 $80.3m     -53%

APRIL                                    2007                        2008           Change 

Number sold                         53                              30               -43%

Median price                       $529k                        $449k          -17%

DOM                                     45                               53                 +8

Average price                     $560k                        $525k            -6%

Volume                                 $5.94m                     $3.52m          -47%

Avg price sq ft                     $337                          $300              -11%

If you are looking for your home, or thinking that it is time to sell, call me and together lets think about your scenario…    Jamie Madison 

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Philanthropy at Work: Saving our Schools $1 at a Time

Davis, known for its excellent, high ranking has been hit with financial cuts from several sides:

1. The Governor of California has cut support for schools

2. Due to fewer home sales, income from taxes has slowed

3. We don’t have as many children as we used to have - state income is on a per/child basis

Leave it to the citizens of our town to band together.  There has been a tremendous outpouring of energy and money to support the focused and organized effort of the Davis Schools Foundation.  The primary effort centers around the Dollar-A-Day campaign that asks every citizen to donate $1/day or $365 for the coming year.  By raising $4million the foundation can spare libraries, counselors, school staff, elementary science and arts programs and more for the coming year.  To date, over $806,000 has been raised.

Not only children and parents of Davis, but small business owners are giving generously and continue to sponsor in events. Events include a celebrity waiter dinner, all schools rally, a downtown festival called Schoolapalooza, BBQs, wine tastings, golf days and more.  I have joined with a client, shop owner (Five Figs) and another agent to sponsor a central Davis walking home tour coming June 8.

Coldwell Banker Agents and Management have pledged $10,000 which will be delivered to the foundation shortly.

Our schools are an important part of the value of Davis.  It is amazing to see the efforts and involvement of the entire community to protect this valuable asset, and makes me feel more proud than ever to be a part of our town.

-Jamie Madison

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Davis Market Rocks: 79 Pendings in April

Wow!  Slow to start and then it came all at once…during April there have been 79 sales and pendings in Davis!  There are 145 listed single family homes…meaning that we have just slightly less than a 2 month supply of homes in Davis.

77% of the listings sold were Coldwell Banker listings.  What does this mean to you? If you are selling you will get greater exposure before your home even goes on the market. If you are buying, you will hear about your home before it hits the market if you are working with Coldwell Banker in Davis.

Overall in year to date sales, Davis is down 46% from this time 2007.  Interestingly, the very down nearby markets are up from 2007 - Woodland +27%, Natomas +37%, Elk Grove +36% and West Sacramento is +18%.  Investors are coming in hoards to the land of short sales and foreclosures.

Back to Davis, here is a snapshot of price per square foot for two ranges of homes:

                                      1200 - 1600 sq ft homes         2000 - 2500 sq ft homes

2005                                $372/sf                                       $325/ sf

2006                                $353/sf                                       $313/sf

2007                                $337 /sf                                       $310/sf

2008                                $323/sf                                        $290/sf

Overall prices are down an average of 11% from the height of the market in 2005.

-Jamie Madison

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760 is the new 720: Angst in the 700 club…

 

That is Suze Orman’s claim and she is apparently right. If you are obsessing about your credit score, you may have reason. Lenders are demanding higher scores because they have been burned by increasing delinquincy rates.  Simultaneously, new scoring systems may complicate your efforts to monitor and improve your score.

Fair Isaac is introducing FICO 08 to better predict the liklihood of defaults.  One change in the new scoring method is that “authorized users” on your credit cards will now be disreagarded. More emphasis will be placed on having a variety of credit types (installment loans and revolving accounts).

What makes up your FICO number?  Payment history accounts for about 35%, while what you owe accounts for another 30%. Other factors are length of credit history and the type of credit used.

What to do?

Get a copy of your credit report

Look for mistakes - according to US Public Interest Research Group, 25% of reports contain errors.  Check to make sure that credit limits are noted - an ommission will skew your score.

Don’t increase your limits shortly before shopping for a loan - it can be a sign of increased risk for the lender. 

Confine your loan shopping to a few weeks - multiple credit inquiries can damage your score. 

Pay your bills on time

Have a good mix of credit products

Get your own credit cards if you are a joint holder.

Don’t max out your available credit

Don’t open up credit card accounts you don’t need.

Don’t close old credit card accounts.

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